New START Treaty Expires, Sparking Concerns of a New Arms Race
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between Russia and the United States expired on February 5, 2026, triggering concerns about global strategic stability and marking the end of a key nuclear arms control agreement. The expiration has intensified fears of a renewed global arms race, with both Beijing and Moscow expressing regret at the lapse of the treaty.
Background and Context
The New START treaty, in effect for 15 years, functioned as a stabilising force between the world’s two largest nuclear powers, setting limits on deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems. Its expiration has left the world’s two largest nuclear powers without legally binding limits on their arsenals or an inspection regime.
Key Developments
Following the treaty's expiration, U.S. President Donald Trump called for a new, improved, and modernized Treaty
that could last long into the future, dismissing the New START as a badly negotiated deal
. Russian officials, however, swiftly countered these claims. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia's security council, argued that Washington's approach would make any deal impossible.
In the aftermath of the treaty's expiration, the United States and Russia are negotiating a way to extend the terms of the agreement. According to Axios, in Abu Dhabi, Washington and Moscow reportedly discussed the possibility of extending the limits of the New Start nuclear non-proliferation treaty for another six months beyond its expiration. However, there has been no official confirmation from the White House or the Kremlin.
In the midst of these negotiations, the Trump administration has repeatedly pressed for a new treaty to include China. Beijing, however, has publicly rejected the pressure.
Implications and Reactions
The end of the New START treaty has raised questions about global stability. South Korea has voiced its concerns over the weakening of global momentum to rein in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Furthermore, the expiration of the treaty has left many questioning if the world is facing a new Cold War and a possible nuclear arms race.
While Russia has expressed regret at the lapse of the treaty, it has also assured that it will act responsibly despite the treaty's expiry, stressing that it sought to preserve the treaty. China too has expressed regret at the treaty's expiration, emphasizing its significance in maintaining global strategic stability.
Current Status
As the nuclear landscape becomes increasingly unpredictable, the world watches to see how the U.S., Russia, and China will navigate this delicate situation. However, the current status remains uncertain as the conversations between the U.S. and Russia continue and the potential of China's involvement hangs in the balance.
Meanwhile, the West is engaging in debates about the role of nuclear weapons, with discussions suggesting a growing frivolity towards weapons whose sole historical purpose has been mass annihilation. As the world grapples with the end of the New START treaty, the future of nuclear arms control remains unclear.