World Enters Uncertain Phase as U.S.-Russia New START Treaty Expires

The New START treaty between Russia and the U.S. expired on February 5, marking an end to the legally binding limits on global nuclear arsenals. This development may signal the start of a potentially dangerous phase of unrestricted nuclear arsenal expansion, as neither country has bound itself to new limits.

Background and Context

Signed in 2011, the New START treaty was designed to last for ten years, with an option for a five-year extension, which was utilized in 2021. However, the agreement does not allow for further extensions. In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed to the U.S. to continue observing the missile and warhead limits for another year post expiration. Despite U.S. President Donald Trump calling it a good idea, the U.S. has yet to respond officially.

Key Developments

While the U.S. has remained silent on Putin's proposal, the Russian authorities have shown openness to finding solutions on strategic stability. Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov noted this stance while commenting on the looming expiration of the New START Treaty.

Concurrently, peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are underway in Abu Dhabi. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expects these negotiations to soon lead to another prisoner exchange and hopes that peace can be achieved within a year through diplomatic means.

Implications and Reactions

The end of the New START pact has raised fears around the world of an unchecked arms race. Moscow has already confirmed that with the lapse of the arms treaty, they are no longer bound by nuclear limits. This shift could potentially impact other nations, including Japan, triggering debates over revising its three nonnuclear principles.

Experts warn of a more uncertain nuclear future. Matt Korda, Associate Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said, Without those central limits... both countries are going to be reassessing their programs to accommodate a more uncertain nuclear future.

Former U.S. Congressman Dennis Kucinich stressed that a Russia-U.S. deal on arms control is necessary for humanity's survival, emphasizing the shared interest of both nations in nuclear arms reduction.

Conclusion

The world now stands at the precipice of an era without nuclear arms control. As Russia and the U.S. walk away from arms control, countries like China continue to expand their nuclear capabilities, leading to a future fraught with unpredictable new nuclear arms races.

Meanwhile, peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue, and the date and location of the next round could change due to U.S.-Iran tensions. As the world grapples with the implications of an unchecked arms race, diplomacy takes center stage in the hope of achieving peace.